The whole world is anticipating the result of the 2020 US election poll, which will be a striking revelation on 3 November. The quick fix to our doubts on whether Trump will revel in the White House for another long four years.
The robust contender for Trump is Joe Biden from the Democratic Party whose has been actively involved in US politics since 1970 and popularly known as Barack Obama’s vice-president.
Biden leading national presidential polls
National polls are the touchstone to determine the popularity is a candidate across the nation, but that does not mean they ensure a fortified accurate election result. For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton spearheaded the polls bagging nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump. Yet, she lost the polls majorly because of the electoral college system employed in the US polls.
However, let’s keep that red flag aside, this year’s national polls have testified Joe Biden to vanguard the national polls from the very start of the year with 51% in recent months and a 10-point lead on specific occasions. At the same time, Trump enjoys a 43% in these polls.
Which states will decide the future of this election?
The year 2016 furnished a useful insight that it is not the number of votes that is of utmost significance but where you win them is the crucial factor that decides the future of the election.
Most states almost always vote in the same pattern, which means, in reality, there exist a few states where both candidates share an equal probability of winning. These are the crucial states where the election will be won or lost, and they are termed as battleground states.
And presently, polls in the battleground states appear charming for Joe Biden, but there’s a long way to go before the final day, and it is Trump on the other side. The poll states Joe Biden is leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the primary three industrial states.
However, in 2016 Trump’s stronghold was these battleground states, primarily Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and this is perturbing his marketing team this year. Betting markets still believe that there are chances of things turning upside down; at the same time, political analysts are convinced that his opportunity for re-election is bleak.
The impact of Covid-19 on Trump’s numbers
Donald Trump’s approach received augmented support in mid-March when he declared a national emergency and provided a fund of $50 billion to states to curb the spread of coronavirus, with 55% of Americans supporting him.
But by July, we see a tangible shift with his supporters questioning his response. The death toll can reach a colossal 230,000 by election day. But if Trump is engendering a spectral Operation Warp Speed that administers a vaccine before 3 November – this October surprise can turn the election head over heels.